Zhongnan Media (601098): 18Q4 revenue, net profit picks up, and actively pays attention to the company’s campus bookstore offline channel layout
18Q4 revenue, net profit picked up, and high proportion of cash dividends highlight the company’s strong value attributes.
In 2018, the company achieved operating income of 95.
76 trillion, down 7 every year.
57%; net profit attributable to mothers12.
38 ‰, a decrease of 18 per year.
19%; the company’s net cash flow from operating activities in 2018 was 12.
69 ppm, 35 years average.
6%; affected by the new regulations on teaching aids in Hunan Province, the company’s revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2018 have gradually replaced.
However, the company actively responded to the impact of the new teaching aids through the development of campus bookstores and other policies, and the impact of the policy gradually subsided. The company’s operating situation also improved in the fourth quarter of 2018, and the company achieved revenue 34 in 18Q4.
66 ppm, an increase of ten years.
87%, net profit attributable to mothers3.
68 ppm, an increase of 9 in ten years.
8%, revenue and net profit rebound significantly.
In 2018, the company plans to distribute dividends for every 10 shares6.
1 yuan, the dividend ratio is 88.
5%, based on the closing price on April 22, the dividend yield is about 4.
8%, a high proportion of cash dividends reflects the company’s high-quality cash flow status and alternative value attributes.
General book publishing: Steady growth, explosive products enhance the company’s brand value.
In 2018, the company’s general book publishing sales code was foreign 11.
6.6 billion yuan, operating income 5.
10,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.
14%, gross profit margin 39.
28%, basically the same as last year.
The company’s competitiveness index in the general book field, according to the open book monitoring data, in 2018, the total foreign book retail market share in the country.
10%, ranking second.
In 2018, the company’s 30 books exceeded 92 times on the best-selling monthly list of physical stores, and 28 books 79 times on the best-selling monthly list of online stores.
As of the end of 2018, the company’s “Passing by Your World” has gradually released over 6.4 million copies, “Shadow Stealer” and “Good, Touch Your Head” have issued over 2.5 million copies. “I don’t” “Amitabha?””Mada” has cumulatively issued over 2 million copies, and Dabing’s new book “You Are Bad” went on sale in June 2018, with over 1.2 million copies sold, successfully entering the top ten non-fiction books in 2018.
From the perspective of the book category, according to the data monitoring of the open book, the company’s composition, science, literature, art comprehensive and other book brands ranked first, psychological self-help, biography brand ranked second, music, academic culture, Chinese classical literature brand ranked third, Showing the company’s better brand capabilities in the field of literature and art.
With a good reputation, the company has also cooperated with Zhang Jiajia, 南宁桑拿 Da Bing and many other best-selling authors. We believe that the company is expected to continue to create “long-term + best-selling” book explosions in the future.
Teaching aids: The campus bookstore was launched in an orderly manner, and the impact of the new teaching aids weakened.
In 2018, the company published 18.
3 ‰, the ten-year average of 19.
7% of the teaching and learning materials issued income 41.
180,000 yuan, a ten-year average of 19.
The company’s teaching aid business revenue decreased in 2018, mainly due to the introduction of the new policy of one education and one supplement in Hunan Province. The procurement bodies such as schools replaced the catalogue of supplementary teaching aids. Facing a strict policy environment, the company actively promoted the sinking of marketingGo to schools, classes and students to promote service upgrades.
As of the end of 2018, the total number of campus bookstores of the company reached 1062, and campus bookstore sales increased by 106%. We believe that the active development of the company’s campus bookstore outlets must avoid hedging the impact of new teaching aids on the company’s main business.
The transformation of digital education continues to advance.In 2018, the company increased the business layout of Tianwen Digital Media. Until the end of 2018, Tianwen Digital Media’s digital education products have served more than 8,000 schools and about 18 million teachers and students.
Facing the continuous innovation of new technologies, the company continues to strengthen the operation and promotion of the ECO cloud platform, and enhance the technical standards and user experience of core products such as CCE cloud classrooms. At present, the company has basically formed an ECO cloud open platform foundation and AiClass cloud classrooms.AiSchool Smart Campus, AiCloud Education Cloud, School Adjacent APP, ECR Resource Cloud Platform as the core application of the “Smart Education Ecological Tree” complete business layout.
We believe that the digital education business is expected to link the company’s book content in the future, which will promote the company’s main business to achieve high growth.
Profit forecast and evaluation analysis.
We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.
78 yuan, 0.
89 yuan and 1.
We believe that the company has made breakthroughs in the previous period due to the influence of Hunan ‘s “one education and one supplement” policy. Nowadays, offline outlets such as campus bookstores are constantly changing, offline service centers are continuously sinking, and after the painful period of transformation, revenue and profit in 2019 are expected to resume positive growth.
With reference to comparable companies’ estimates and taking into account the company’s scale advantage and leading position in the industry, we give the company January 2019.
20 times PEG (18-19 times for 19 years of dynamic PE), corresponding to a reasonable value range of 13.
00 yuan / share, maintain the sustainable market rating.
Risk reminder: The risk of paper costs rising too quickly, the campus bookstore is developing less than expected.