Yunda shares (002120) 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarterly report comments: Q1 deducted non-same increase of 38%, excellent cost control, single ticket gross profit

Yunda shares (002120) 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarterly report comments: Q1 deducted non-same increase of 38%, excellent cost control, single ticket gross profit
Core point of view Last year, the company’s revenue increased by 39% to US $ 13.9 billion, the net profit attributable to mothers and non-deductible non-net profit increased by 70% / 39% to 2.7 billion / 21 trillion, and the gross profit rate 武汉夜生活网 of express delivery rose by 0.2pct to 29.2%, single ticket gross margin fell by 6 points to 0.50 RMB.In Q1, the distribution fee was recorded as revenue. The company’s revenue increased by 152% to 67 trillion, non-net profit increased by 38% to 500 million, gross profit increased by 51%, and total expenses increased by 66% to 3.500 million. Performance Overview: The company’s 2018 revenue increased by 38.8% to 138.600 million, net profit attributable to mother / deducted non-net profit increased by 70 respectively.0% / 38.7% to 27.0 billion / 21.4 ppm; constant gross margin decreased by 1.0 points to 28.0%, during the same period, the expense rate drops to 0.4pct to 7.3%, Fengchao’s equity disposal gains and bank wealth management income growth pushed the company’s investment income to increase by 1048% to 7.5.8 billion.Affected by the transfer of fees into revenue in 2019, the company’s Q1 revenue increased by 151.6% to 66.9 trillion, net profit attributable to mother / deducted non-net profit increased by 40 respectively.4% / 38.1% to 5.700 million / 5.0 ppm; Q1 gross profit increased by 50.8%, the total cost of the period increased by 66% to 3.50,000 yuan, investment income (bank financial management entity) + other income total increase by 224% to 1.0 million. The express delivery business increased in quality and quality, and the share climbed to the second place in the industry.In 2018, the company’s courier shipment volume continued to grow at a rapid rate, an increase of 48.0% to 69.900 million pieces, occupying 2pcts to 13.8%, ranking second in the industry.At the same time of high growth, the company’s service quality has also maintained first-class standards: 1) The company’s average monthly profit rate in 2018 was only 0.77 times / million pieces, the first in accessibility; 2) The company’s express delivery service is second only to SF and EMS, ranking first in accessibility.Q1’s express delivery continued to maintain medium-to-high growth, with the same volume increasing by 41.5% to 17.800 million pieces. Excellent cost control and strong gross margin.Through routing planning, miniaturization of goods, optimization of transportation vehicles, and information restoration, the company continued to promote cost reduction, thereby reducing the cost of single tickets.4% to 1.22 yuan, of which the transportation cost / sorting cost decreased by 11 respectively.1% / 9.5% to 0.83/0.38 yuan.The decrease in cost was greater than the decrease in price, which pushed the company’s courier business gross margin to rise by 0 last year.2pct to 29.2%.Q1 company continued to maintain excellent capital control capabilities, and gross profit increased by 50%.8%, faster than the volume growth (41.5%), indicating that the company’s single ticket express gross profit is likely to increase. Freight development is rapid, but profitability is weak, and Q1 management expenses have increased.The company started military freight business in 2017Q4, and the cargo operation revenue reached 5 last year.400 million, rapid development.Since freight is still in the business development period and the scale effect is weak, the current business gross margin is only -12%, and the net loss was 0 last year.6.7 billion.As the company’s freight business growth in the future brings scale effects and continuous cost optimization, it is expected that the freight business is expected to achieve basic breakeven this year.The management expenses of the company in Q1 2019 increased by 76.9% to 2.900 million US dollars, lowering the profit level, but government subsidies and bank wealth management income increased other income + investment income increased by 224% to 1.0ppm, contributing some incremental profits. Risk factors: the decline in e-commerce demand; the industry’s price war exceeds expectations; the risks of rising costs such 重庆耍耍网 as labor and oil prices. Investment suggestion: Considering that the company’s Q1 express shipment volume continues to maintain a 40% + growth rate and the Q1 company’s single ticket gross profit rebounds against the trend, we adjust the company’s EPS forecast for 2019/20 to 1.60/1.96 yuan (previous forecast 1).53/1.96 yuan), plus forecast for 2021.36 yuan, corresponding to PE is 24/19/16 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

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